Larry Fisher

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Edmonton Oilers forward David Perron, left, congratulates Ryan Smyth on opening the scoring against the New York Rangers during first-period NHL action in New York on Thursday. It was a vintage Smyth goal as the ageless wonder (who is actually turning 38 this month) went to the net and shovelled in a gift-wrapped rebound of Perron’s shot. The Oilers went on to win 2-1.

I’ll admit, I fully expected the Edmonton Oilers to lose on Thursday night.

I just couldn’t, for the life of me, envision them defeating the red-hot New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. No way, no how.

Yet, here we are again, analyzing a win for the fifth time in the last six games — a first for this season. Someway, somehow.

Ben Scrivens, Nail Yakupov and, yes, Dallas Eakins were the 3 stars in this 2-1 victory. In that order.

Scrivens is playing the part of saviour right now. He’s been rock-solid and sometimes spectacular since coming to Edmonton via trade from Los Angeles on Jan. 15. His teammates clearly have confidence in him and he’s more than held the fort behind a shoddy-albeit-improving defence corps.

Ilya Bryzgalov deserves his due as well and might be in line for Friday’s start against the New Jersey Devils, but after another 35-save, first-star performance on Thursday, it’s difficult not to shine the spotlight on Scrivens. He had next-to-no chance on Derick Brassard’s one-timer goal, but made several clutch stops — none bigger than denying Rangers captain Ryan Callahan on a clear-cut breakaway.

As alluded to, New York had won four straight — averaging 4.5 goals per game — and seven of its last 10, which makes Scrivens’ showing all the more impressive.

Frank Franklin II/The Associated Press
Edmonton Oilers goaltender Ben Scrivens wasn’t fooled by New York Rangers captain Ryan Callahan’s deke attempt on a shorthanded breakaway during the second period of Thursday’s victory. This save, one of 35 for Scrivens on the night, kept the contest tied at 1-1.

In his six starts for the Oilers, Scrivens is sporting a .942 save percentage. You’d think that couldn’t be sustainable. Yet, in 25 appearances to date this season, Scrivens is maintaining a league-best .937 save percentage.

That is still a relatively small sample size, but this local boy might just be a keeper. Scrivens, who turns 28 in September, will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, so you have to wonder if he’ll be meeting with Craig MacTavish at some point during the upcoming Olympic break. You know, to talk contract extension with the rookie general manager.

I’m starting to believe Scrivens could be the real deal, more than just a flash in the pan anyway. But is he ready to be a true No. 1 and carry a 50-plus-start workload as early as next season? I’m not yet convinced, not 100 per cent sold to that extent.

That said, if I’m MacT — and if Scrivens wants to stay in Edmonton past this year, which is the great unknown as of today — then I would consider putting a low-risk offer on the table in the coming days. Three years and $6 million, or $2 million per sounds reasonable enough. If Scrivens signs off and stinks it up down the stretch or next season, Edmonton has a fairly expensive backup on the books. If he continues to thrive and prove himself as a starter going forward, and considering Scrivens only cost Edmonton a third-round pick in this year’s draft, then MacT is one key piece closer to constructing a playoff contender — at a bargain rate to boot.

It’s a tough call, but I think I’d be dialing up Scrivens’ agent sooner than later. On one hand, you own his rights for the rest of this season and can wait it out to make sure he’s as good (and as consistent) as he’s been so far. On the other hand, the longer you wait, the higher that future salary escalates assuming Scrivens keeps playing lights-out following the Olympics.

However you want to look at it, the fact remains that the Oilers have been getting good goaltending throughout this stretch — and they’ve needed it; getting outshot in all six games, by a combined 242-155. Make that great goaltending, with that discrepancy now totaling 87, though the 36-31 spread from Thursday was as close as Edmonton has come on the shot-clock in what was also, arguably, its most complete effort of the past six games.

Edmonton Journal Blogs/Oil Spills
Scrivens was the story from start to finish on Thursday, but he might not have grabbed headlines again if it wasn’t for the late-game heroics of Nail Yakupov (pictured above), who scored the winning goal with 1:38 remaining in the third period.

Which brings us to Yakupov. His struggles this season have been well documented, having spent a few games in the press box as a healthy scratch. He’s come a long way since then, as evidenced by his promotion to the top line alongside fellow first overall picks Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to start Thursday’s game.

Yakupov made good on that opportunity by netting the winner with less than two minutes left in regulation. On that go-ahead goal, he actually took a feed from Sam Gagner — he of the rampant trade rumours — and rocketed a shot past Cameron Talbot to trigger another of Yakupov’s patented-and-passionate celebrations.

Just 98 seconds later, the rest of the Oilers joined Yakupov in celebrating their unprecedented success on the campaign. Should they make it six out of seven on Friday and match their season-high three-game winning streak for the third time — and second time in the last two weeks — then things will certainly be looking up in Oil Country.

JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Edmonton Oilers head coach Dallas Eakins delivers his message to players during a pre-season game against the New York Rangers in Edmonton back on Sept. 24, 2013. It hasn’t come easy for Eakins in his first season behind Edmonton’s bench, but his message appears to be finally getting through, with the Oilers having won five of their past six games.

And Eakins is warranting a lot of the credit. As a rookie head coach at the NHL level, Eakins has been raked through the coals countless times in his short tenure, with the firing squad already calling for his head. Their minds made up that Eakins was in over his head.

This, the same guy who had been courted for multiple vacancies around the league last summer before being snatched up by Edmonton. Eakins was widely regarded as one of the brightest young bench bosses in the game, a former journeyman defenceman who will turn 47 later this month.

It took time — too much time, by all accounts — but it seems now that Eakins may finally be pressing the right buttons and getting the desired results. It’s most likely too little, too late, with the Oilers still 17 points back of the final playoff spot, occupied by the floundering Vancouver Canucks. But if Eakins can keep everybody on the same page for the final 23 games — counting Friday — and win, oh let’s say, 15 more times, that can only bode well for the future.

That’s asking a lot, to anticipate only eight more losses from a team that is still 13-plus games below .500. Especially considering all this momentum is coming just in time for MacT to blow it up, by shipping out a handful of veterans prior to the March 5 trade deadline.

That could easily happen and greatly alter those expectations, but in the meantime — and during the Olympic downtime — Oilers fans, optimists and pessimists alike, should try to savour these winning ways while they last. Enjoy them before they are gone again.

The Associated Press
Edmonton Oilers forward Matt Hendricks, right, celebrates his go-ahead goal with linemate Boyd Gordon during third-period NHL action against the Buffalo Sabres on Monday in Buffalo. Hendricks’ goal, on a shorthanded breakaway, stood up as the winner in Edmonton’s 3-2 victory. The Oilers seem to be making strides, winning four of their last five games.

The Edmonton Oilers are on a roll — at least in terms of recent results.

They have won four of their last five games — including a stretch of three straight — for only the second time this season, on both fronts. The Oilers have yet to win four in a row or even five out of six, so they could raise their success bar with another victory Thursday night in New York against the host Rangers.

That would, all things considered, be a step in the right direction.

Yet, with the team stuck in second-to-last place overall and, by most estimations, mathematically out of playoff contention heading into the Olympic break, the fan base is struggling to get excited over these little (in the big picture) breakthroughs. And understandably so, having already come to grips with missing the post-season for an eighth straight spring.

Owner Daryl Katz attempted to sugarcoat that reality with last month’s sympathy letter but, reality is, patience and optimism are wearing thin in Oil Country.

Taking a closer look at the last five games won’t exactly rally the troops. Removing the copper-coloured glasses, it’s plain to see the Oilers aren’t making much in the way of forward progress — contrary to what those outcomes suggest.

Have they been playing better as of late? Sure. Kind of. I guess. But, by no means is that answer a resounding yes.

Expanding that window to eight games, which would encompass three consecutive one-goal losses, it’s impossible to argue that Edmonton isn’t making improvements and becoming more competitive on a nightly basis.

However, even with the win “streak”, this mirage hasn’t been all that impressive.

The Canadian Press
Edmonton Oilers forward David Perron celebrates his goal much to the chagrin of Vancouver Canucks defenceman Kevin Bieksa and goaltender Roberto Luongo during NHL action in Vancouver last Monday. Perron scored a hat trick and Edmonton prevailed 4-2.

Two of the victories were thanks to outstanding individual performances: David Perron’s second career hat trick and first as a member of the Oilers — ironically, both coming against the Vancouver Canucks — and newcomer Ben Scrivens’ NHL-record 59-save shutout in stonewalling the visiting San Jose Sharks.

From a “total team effort” standpoint, the best of the bunch was last Sunday’s 5-1 home win over the Nashville Predators. Edmonton was full marks for that one, but lest we forget, the Predators aren’t an upper-echelon team and their top goalie (Pekka Rinne) has been sidelined for most of the season with a hip infection.

The Oilers exposed his temporary placeholder Carter Hutton — who got the start ahead of Edmonton castoff Devan Dubnyk — and Dallas Eakins used last change to shelter the kid line from Shea Weber at times, which also helped matters.

That said, the Oilers were still outshot 35-27, so the scoreboard was a bit misleading in the end.

The same can be said for Edmonton escaping with a 4-2 road decision at Vancouver last Monday, which saw Perron dominate with three goals, including an empty-netter to seal the deal.

The Canucks outshot the Oilers by the same margin, 27-20, but experienced an emotional letdown coming off their dust-up with the Calgary Flames two nights earlier. This happened to be Vancouver’s first of what amounted to six games without the services of head coach John Tortorella (suspension) and captain Henrik Sedin (rib injury). And the Canucks were already reeling en route to finishing the month of January with a miserable 4-9-1-1 record. They continued to cling to the Western Conference’s final wild-card playoff spot following Tuesday’s action — just one point ahead of the Phoenix Coyotes, but still 19 clear of the lowly Oilers.

So give Edmonton credit for capitalizing on Vancouver’s misfortune in this contest, but don’t sing the praises too loud for squeaking out its first ‘W’ in three tries this season against a superior-but-slumping rival.

For those wondering, Perron previously turned the trick in a 6-1 thumping of the Canucks back on Nov. 10, 2009 during his third NHL season with the St. Louis Blues, who traded Perron to Edmonton this past summer in a 1-for-1 steal of a swap for Magnus Paajarvi.

Ed Kaiser/Edmonton Journal
Edmonton Oilers goaltender Ben Scrivens makes a breakaway save on San Jose Sharks forward Patrick Marleau during NHL action at Rexall Place in Edmonton last Wednesday. Scrivens set a new NHL-record with a 59-save shutout in Edmonton’s 3-0 win.

Scrivens, who could prove to be rookie general manager Craig MacTavish’s other big coup, was acquired last month from the Los Angeles Kings for a token third-round pick in this June’s draft. The 27-year-old Spruce Grove product now has four shutouts on the season — tied for second among NHL leaders — but this was also a first for him as an Oiler. Not to mention a historic accomplishment.

The Oilers had no business beating the Sharks 3-0 that night. Granted, they were opportunistic in the offensive zone, but it should have been a 6-3 defeat at best if not for Scrivens’ heroics.

He followed that up with a 37-save showing in a 4-0 setback to the big, bad Boston Bruins in Beantown bright and early Saturday morning. Do the math and Scrivens stopped 96 of 100 shots in just two starts — yes, 96 per cent of the pucks he faced — which is certainly more of a credit to him than his teammates.

Even in Edmonton’s most recent triumph — if you can call it that — the Oilers were badly outshot, 44-28, but edged the host Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in a battle between the league’s two worst teams.

This wasn’t good hockey. It was sloppy and short on highlights. Edmonton’s power play, which has been Jekyll-and-Hyde all season, was as awful as ever — surrendering its league-high 10th shorthanded goal of the season in the process.

It was painful to watch in certain parts and almost resembled beer league at other moments, such as when Perron slid on his belly in a failed bid to get back onside or when Sabres netminder Jhonas Enroth grossly overplayed a breakaway move by Matt Hendricks that held up as the winning goal.

Not to take anything away from Hendricks, who has been another pleasant addition and brings a lot of what the Oilers were lacking in their bottom-six forwards, but he’s not a goal-scorer by trade. He’s never hit double-digits in a five-year NHL career to date, though he does have a few dangles up his sleeve and has been dubbed somewhat of a “shootout specialist” from his past stints in Washington and Nashville. But this was in regulation, off a shorthanded rush to be precise, so Enroth was left looking fairly foolish or amateurish in the aftermath as Hendricks celebrated his second goal since joining the Oilers in exchange for Dubnyk on Jan. 15 — the same day Edmonton landed Scrivens from L.A.

Not to rain on the parade, but rewind Monday’s game to insert regular Sabres starter Ryan Miller between the pipes and, chances are, we’re singing a different tune — something to the effect of ‘three steps forward, two steps back’.

Instead, everything appears hunky-dory and we’re blasting the ballad ‘4 out of 5 ain’t bad’ — or was it 2 out of 3 ain’t bad?

Regardless, Edmonton again found a way to win and there is something to be said for that. At the end of the day, this mini-run has to be viewed in a positive light, that the Oilers are finding the win column — some way, somehow.

However, realistically speaking, don’t expect that trend to last much longer.

It must be reiterated that although Edmonton has won four of its last five, it has been outshot in all five — by as few as seven and as many as 32 for a stunning-or-shameful combined total of 82 (206-124). Therefore, my trusty calculator tells me the opposition has averaged — I repeat, averaged — 16.4 more shots on goal per game than the Oilers over that span.

To predict prolonged success with shot discrepancies like that would be, for lack of a better term, silly. Well, asinine, really.

The law of averages, the underworld of advanced stats and, last but not least, common sense all indicate this pendulum is bound to swing back in favour of the bad guys sooner than later.

Some will counter that the Toronto Maple Leafs have made a habit of winning despite consistently getting outshot. They will also be sure to remind us that Scrivens was a product of that environment just last season, before he was shipped off to Hollywood in the summer trade that brought Jonathan Bernier to Toronto. But rest assured, the Leafs are the exception — not the rule. And, historically, allowing opponents to run up the shot-clock is a recipe for disaster — not success.

Sean Rudyk/Getty Images
Edmonton Oilers goalie Ilya Bryzgalov braces for an incoming shot as teammates Andrew Ference, left, and Nick Schultz defend against Cody Hodgson and the Buffalo Sabres during NHL action in Buffalo on Monday. The Oilers won 3-2, thanks in large part to Bryzgalov’s 42 saves.

Ultimately, this statistical evidence speaks volumes about the quality of goaltending Edmonton has been getting from both Scrivens and Ilya Bryzgalov, who backstopped the victories over Vancouver and Buffalo.

If — or, inevitably, when — either of them slips up, Edmonton will probably be in for another serving of humble pie. That force-feeding could be on the menu as early as Thursday against the red-hot Rangers, who have won four straight and seven of their last 10.

The Oilers then have a quick turnaround to close out their pre-Olympic schedule with Friday’s stop in New Jersey to face the Devils.

Wish them luck — they might very well need it . . . again!

Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images
Former Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Mark Fraser, right, tangles with Montreal Canadiens pugilist Brandon Prust during NHL action earlier this season. On Friday, Toronto traded Fraser to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for forwards Teemu Hartikainen and Cameron Abney.

The Edmonton Oilers acquired Mark Fraser on Friday morning.

If your initial reaction to that trade with Toronto was ‘Mark who?’ ‘Fraser who?’ . . . fear not, you are not alone. Fraser is far from a household name at this point in his career, as a 27-year-old journeyman with only 162 NHL games on his resume over eight pro seasons to date.

All I really know is he’s big, he’s black (at least part black) and my girlfriend thought he was “kinda hot” when he fought Travis Moen of Montreal way back in the season opener on Oct. 1 . . . so he’s got that going for him.

Realistically, though, Fraser’s kind of a nobody.

But could he be a somebody? Maybe.

Fraser certainly brings a skill-set that Edmonton’s defence corps is currently lacking.

He’s big, as mentioned, listed at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds.

The Oilers’ back end actually has decent size these days, but their most physical blue-liner is also their smallest in captain Andrew Ference at 5-foot-11, 187 pounds.

Anton Belov had been the biggest defender at 6-4 and 218, but the 27-year-old Russian rookie doesn’t strike fear into anybody or play an overly gritty game. Paired with Fraser, they could be an imposing tandem and Fraser’s feistiness could rub off. But neither are too fleet of foot, so that could also be a disaster waiting to happen. Truth be told, they might be auditioning against each other — together or apart — for a spot on next year’s depth chart.

Martin Marincin, another European rookie at just 21 years old, is also 6-4, but he’s a string bean at 188 pounds and relies more on positioning to keep attackers at bay.

Corey Potter is 6-3, 204 and probably the second-most physical behind Ference, but he’ll likely find himself on the outside looking in — both present and future — with Fraser’s addition.

Jeff Petry is 6-3, 195, but doesn’t go out of his way to throw bodychecks and I can’t remember the last time he dropped the gloves. If he ever has as an Oiler? . . . Hockeyfights.com to the rescue, reminding me that Petry has fought once — just once — against Matt Calvert of Columbus last March.

Fraser has 26 NHL scraps under his belt, according to Hockeyfights.com, including three this season. His most recent opponents: Moen, Brandon Prust also of Montreal and Dalton Prout of Columbus.

Nick Schultz, who tips the scales at 6-1 and 203, plays a shutdown style as a smaller, older Fraser, but Schultz is an unrestricted free agent after this season and most don’t expect him back. Fraser, who is making $1.275 million this season, is also a UFA, as is the aforementioned Belov, so there will be some healthy competition for playing time — present and future, again — amongst that trio.

Justin Schultz and Philip Larsen round out the nine defencemen on Edmonton’s roster, but those two don’t have a mean bone in their bodies. They are offensive puck-movers and point-producers, who won’t impact Fraser’s chances of sticking with the Oilers.

To that end, Fraser has mustered all of 17 career points, including only three goals, to go with his more-noteworthy 204 penalty minutes. This year, Fraser had tallied just one assist in 19 games, with 33 PIMs.

As for the deal itself, the price was right — cheap and fair. Edmonton gave Toronto the rights to Finnish forward Teemu Hartikainen, who bolted for the KHL this year and was essentially replaced by fellow Finn Jesse Joensuu. The Oilers also threw in an enforcer type in former Oil Kings forward Cameron Abney, who is a long-shot to step foot on NHL ice.

Worst-case scenario: Nothing lost, nothing gained.

Ideal result: Fraser proves serviceable as a bottom-pairing defenceman with a chip on his shoulder.

Absolute best-case scenario: A modern-day Charlie Huddy.

So, no, we didn’t just land the second-coming of Paul Coffey, or even Kevin Lowe.

But Fraser could be a bit piece to the puzzle going forward.

Nobody knows that potential answer better than Edmonton’s rookie bench boss Dallas Eakins — having coached Fraser for parts of two seasons with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, and presumably having endorsed this deal much like he did in acquiring goaltender Ben Scrivens last month.

It should be cautioned, though, that being an effective AHL defenceman is entirely different than being an effective NHL defenceman. And Eakins’ scouting report on Fraser is from a minor-league perspective. Eakins, himself, is still getting his feet under him in the big league.

So time will tell whether there’s a long-term fit to be had here with Fraser. If not, there will be other UFA options and don’t forget Edmonton has a stacked cupboard in terms of defence prospects with first-round picks Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse not far off — not to mention potentially adding Aaron Ekblad as a top-three pick this June.

Fraser won’t make-or-break this season or next, but he could make things more interesting and make life tougher on rival teams. Stay tuned . . .

Bernard Brault/La Presse
Fraser, who stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 220 pounds, delivers a stiff jab to the chops of 5-foot-9, 180-pound (soaking wet) Brendan Gallagher during their Original-Six matchup between Toronto and Montreal earlier this season. Fraser’s truculence, pugnacity and belligerence, among other traits, could boost Edmonton’s overall compete level and make the Battle of Alberta more entertaining with his former employer Brian Burke now the figurehead in Calgary. The Oilers and Flames next meet on Saturday, March 1 for a Hockey Night In Canada clash at Rexall Place in Edmonton.

Meanwhile, here’s my buddy Dan Nadeau’s short-but-sweet take on today’s trade. Thanks again for this contribution:

First off, let me say I don’t hate the trade, but I fail to see how it makes us better by adding another No. 4-6 D-man when we already have 5 of them.

We get toughness for sure, but I feel it’s in the wrong area. We need toughness on our top pair — you know, the guys who shut-down Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, the (Sedin) Sisters and those types. We don’t necessarily need a guy to be tough against Paul Bissonnette-type players; we have Luke Gazdic, and Ryan Jones has proved he is willing to literally fight to stay in the NHL.

No, we didn’t give up a whole heck of a lot and people will say look at return on investment. But we are getting a D-man who averages 10-15 minutes of ice a night and is a minus-8 — that’s disturbing to me, especially coming from a Randy Carlyle-coached team!

I guess time will tell if I will eat my words. I really hope I do as a loyal Oiler fan, but hey, it could be worse, it could be another KHL “all-star” bust (see Belov).