UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort

September 19, 2012 Leave a comment

After a brief late-summer hiatus, the UFC will look to make a triumphant return with this Saturday’s UFC 152 card in Toronto. And the dominant mixed martial arts promotion will be counting on one of its dominant champions to make up for that lost time. Light-heavyweight kingpin Jon (Bones) Jones — the man shouldering most of the blame for the extended layoff after his refusal to fight Chael Sonnen resulted in the cancellation of UFC 151 on Sept. 1 — will defend his 205-pound title at the Air Canada Centre against veteran underdog Vitor Belfort.

Although this card is stacked from top to bottom — also featuring the first-ever flyweight (125-pound) title fight between Joseph Benavidez and Demetrious Johnson, plus a middleweight contender bout between Michael Bisping and Brian Stann, not to mention four Canadians fighting on home soil — most eyes will be on the main event, and mainly on Jones.

Once a fan favourite for his unorthodox but extremely effective and entertaining style, Jones has drawn the ire of everybody as of late — from UFC president Dana White, who pointed the finger at Jones for the organization’s only cancelled card in 11 years, to fellow fighters, who disagreed with his decision to duck Sonnen while consequently postponing paydays for those on the undercard. And not to be lost in this, growing fan frustration with some having already lost respect for Jones over a drunk-driving arrest back in May following his last fight, a lacklustre decision victory over former training partner Rashad Evans at UFC 145 on April 21.

Almost as fast as Jones rose to stardom, he’s falling from grace and even getting labeled a prima donna these days, having recently inked a deal with Nike. But, in the dog-eat-dog, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport of MMA, that could all change with one impressive performance over a ripe-for-the-picking opponent such as Belfort.

The UFC desperately needs these headliners and their supporting cast to deliver in highlight-reel fashion to avoid losing additional momentum. Especially staging a show in hockey-mad Canada where blood-or-adrenaline-thirsty fans will need a new winter fix should the NHL’s current lockout be long-lasting — and coming off an underwhelming Calgary debut in the UFC’s last trip north of the 49th parallel for injury-riddled UFC 149 on July 21.

That Calgary card came in the midst of a busy stretch for the UFC, which held five events in just over a calendar month from July 7 to Aug. 11, but none since the latter saw Benson Henderson defeat Frankie Edgar for a second time by controversial split decision to retain the lightweight (155-pound) title.

While the UFC’s bottom line might not be taking a hit yet — in terms of gate revenue and pay-per-view purchases — the last couple months have certainly been a blow to its popularity with the general public slowly but surely losing interest.

The next couple months could, again, change all that as pound-for-pound superstar Anderson Silva headlines UFC 153 in his native Brazil next month before Canadian welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre does the same for UFC 154 in his hometown of Montreal on Nov. 17. St-Pierre hasn’t fought since April 2011, recovering from a knee injury and returning to face interim title-holder Carlos Condit.

Should Silva and St-Pierre both prevail, the stage could be set for a super-fight between the two sometime in 2013 — a dream matchup for White, fans and media alike, akin to the long-rumoured-but-yet-to-materialize boxing match between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr.

That said, nobody should look past the potential fireworks of this Saturday’s card. Without further ado, here are my predictions:

Jon Jones (16-1) vs. Vitor Belfort (21-9)

Jones needs to make a statement in this fight and I’m confident he will. Belfort is better than the bookies are giving him credit for, but Jones is simply on another level and will be out to showcase that. Belfort may be getting long in the tooth at 35 and having been fighting professionally since 1996, but he’s still powerful and explosive, thus giving him a puncher’s chance similar to Matt Serra’s memorable upset of GSP. Jones will no doubt have a lot on his mind and will likely be given a villain’s welcome with a chorus of boos, but I don’t see the champ getting shaken, stirred or stopped in his fourth title defence. Expect Jones, who is more talented in every facet of MMA and possesses a 10-inch reach advantage over Belfort, to stay focused and execute the game plan given to him by renowned trainer Greg Jackson. Expect the result to be devastating and electrifying.

Prediction: Jones by first-round stoppage (KO or submission).

Joseph Benavidez (16-2) vs. Demetrious Johnson (15-2)

Two relative newcomers to the UFC, which only introduced the flyweight division in March, Benavidez and Johnson are as elite as it gets for their weight class. As is common of the lighter fighters, they both scrap at a frenetic, crowd-pleasing pace thanks to unmatched speed and abundant stamina. They could go the full five rounds without skipping much of a beat, a likely outcome as they also lack knockout power because of their slight stature. Having not seen enough of either combatant from past bouts contested outside the Octagon, I’ll go with my gut on this one.

Prediction: Benavidez by unanimous decision (wins 4 rounds to 1).

Michael Bisping (22-4) vs. Brian Stann (12-4)

Bisping has been humble in the build-up to this fight, an adjective not commonly associated with the brash Brit. Perhaps he’s trying a new approach, leaving the trash-talking to the likes of Sonnen, or perhaps Bisping just respects Stann, a former war hero with no real chink in his amour — at least not one to attack verbally. Stann has a big right hand, something Bisping has been vulnerable to in the past — lest we forget how his Ultimate Fighter coaching experience ended at the hands of Dan Henderson. But Bisping is a workhorse who kept up with Sonnen in a close decision loss and might be able to wear down Stann as the fight wears on — that is providing he can keep his hands up and his chin down. Easier said than done for a guy that likes to brawl at times.

Prediction: Stann by second-round KO/TKO.

Matt Hamill (10-4) vs. Roger Hollett (13-3)

Hollett, a Halifax, N.S., native making his UFC debut, has the better record, but Hamill, making his Octagon return after a year-long retirement, has faced the much better competition. Will Hollett have jitters? Or will Hamill have ring rust? Or both . . . ? Regardless, it’s an intriguing fight between 205-pounders looking to take the next step in their respective careers. As much as I don’t like betting against Canadians, I just think a rejuvenated Hamill will be too much to handle for Hollett.

Prediction: Hamill by unanimous decision (3 rounds to none).

Cub Swanson (17-5) vs. Charles Oliveira (16-2)

This has the makings of another fun fight between two action-packed featherweights (145 pounds). I enjoy watching both, but I think there is a discrepancy in their natural skill level, with Oliveira holding a distinct edge on the ground and debatably even standing up. But Swanson is always game and will try to impose his will on an opponent six years his junior. However, I think Swanson’s bullish ways will play right into the hands of Oliveira.

Prediction: Oliveira by first-round submission (armbar).

As for the preliminary fights, I’ll keep these short and sweet:

Igor Pokrajac (25-8) vs. Vinny Magalhães (9-5), light-heavyweight = Magalhães is back in the UFC and back to stay, winning by submission.

T.J. Grant (18-5) vs. Evan Dunham (13-2), lightweight = Grant, from Dartmouth, N.S., has won two straight since dropping down from welterweight, but Dunham is a tough customer who has also won two in a row. Grant will still have a size advantage and use that to his advantage, earning a decision victory.

Sean Pierson (12-6) vs. Lance Benoist (6-1), welterweight = Pierson, from Toronto, will be fighting in front of family and friends and is 12 years older at 36, but the 24-year-old Benoist is considered a well-rounded up-and-comer, with this potentially being his coming-out party . . . Benoist by first-round submission (triangle choke).

Jimmy Hettes (10-0) vs. Marcus Brimage (5-1), featherweight = Speaking of up-and-comers, Hettes is also being hailed as a force to be reckoned with at 145 pounds, with Brimage serving as another stepping stone toward title contention. Hettes by first-round stoppage.

Seth Baczynski (17-8) vs. Simeon Thoresen (17-2), welterweight = Thoresen, a native of Norway, has the more impressive record, but Baczynski has won five straight, including a split decision over Benoist in June. That result, to me, was telling and I expect Baczynski to outlast Thoresen as well, likely by decision.

Mitch Gagnon (8-2) vs. Walel Watson (9-4), bantamweight (135 lbs.) = Gagnon will be the first Canadian in the cage, fighting out of Sudbury, Ont., but at 5-foot-6 he’ll have his hands full with the cagey 5-foot-11 Watson. Gagnon is looking to rebound after losing his UFC debut, while Watson has dropped two straight decisions. An important tilt for both guys, but I’ll go with the Canadian by way of a coin flip and say Gagnon by majority decision.

Tune in to TUF

In UFC news unrelated to the Toronto card, the 16th season of The Ultimate Fighter has started airing and features two Canadian welterweight prospects in Kelowna’s Mike (The Messenger) Hill, 25, and Montreal’s Mike (The Martian) Ricci, 26.

Both have trained with fellow Canadian welterweight Rory MacDonald (13-1), a 23-year-old originally from Kelowna who moved to Montreal where he currently fights out of the TriStar Gym, alongside Ricci (7-2).

Hill (4-0) and Ricci both scored quality TKO victories in the elimination round to earn entry into the TUF house during last Friday’s premier episode, with the ensuing teaser highlighting Hill as one of this season’s more colourful — or possibly controversial — characters. Stay tuned and, as always, enjoy the show (Friday evenings on FX Canada and Rogers Sportsnet, check local listings).

Categories: Uncategorized

UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

Fight fans have had this Saturday circled on their calendar ever since the main event was announced. That being the rematch between middleweight champion Anderson Silva and brash challenger Chael Sonnen. The co-main event is a trilogy bout between retiring Hall-of-Famer Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin, the original Ultimate Fighter. There’s even significant appeal to Canadians, with Patrick Cote and Ivan Menjivar, both training out of Montreal, also on the UFC 148 main card at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Add it all up and this is one of the most anticipated UFC events in recent memory, promising to produce fireworks for Independence Day weekend. Thanks mainly to the headlining title fight, UFC 148 could rival the historic UFC 129 at Toronto’s Rogers Centre or even the stacked UFC 100 in Las Vegas for pay-per-view revenue.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

This scrap more than sells itself, but Sonnen is a master salesman — a former realtor by trade who also dabbled in politics — so not surprisingly he’s still fuelling the hype machine. More surprising is Silva’s willingness to exchange verbal barbs, showing unprecedented swagger and intensity while threatening to knock out all of Sonnen’s teeth. Silva has evidently taken some of Sonnen’s potshots personally and is now on a mission to silence The American Gangster once and for all.

Most opponents show Silva the utmost respect for his accomplishments in mixed martial arts, which include a 14-fight winning streak dating back to 2006, highlighted by nine straight UFC title defences, in racking up a 31-4 overall record. Sonnen (27-11-1) is the exception, constantly slamming Silva for everything and anything, while diminishing his laundry list of accolades and UFC records.

Sonnen makes some valid points amidst his madness, however. Most notably the fact Sonnen dominated Silva in their initial bout on Aug. 7, 2010, in Oakland, Calif., using superior wrestling skills to control The Spider for the better part of 20 minutes only to succumb to a last-ditch submission (triangle choke).

Silva survived that onslaught to pull off the latest finish in UFC history, and has since finished two more opponents — Vitor Belfort and Yushin Okami — in more impressive fashion. Getting training tips from actor Steven Seagal, Silva has achieved rock-star status in his native Brazil, even gracing the cover of that country’s Rolling Stone magazine.

With a highlight-reel finish of Sonnen, Silva’s legacy would reach epic proportions as the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. But if Sonnen can score the upset by delivering a repeat performance without getting caught, he would become the new face of the sport in the 185-pound division. I don’t see the latter coming to fruition, as I think Sonnen pushed one too many buttons on Silva, much like Josh Koscheck did on Georges St-Pierre, and as Silva said in a recent interview: “The game’s over!”

Prediction: Silva by second-round TKO/KO.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

This is a fun fight between two former light-heavyweight champions, even if neither athlete is near his peak or prime at this point. Both are pioneers, responsible in their own right for the sport’s meteoric rise to mainstream. Ortiz has announced his retirement, win or lose, but he got an early start to his training camp and fully intends to leave the UFC on a triumphant note. That will be a tall order, though, having lost five of his last six fights and only winning once since 2006.

Ortiz (16-10-1) won a split decision over Griffin that year in their initial bout, which Griffin (18-7) avenged with a split-decision victory of his own in 2009. But Griffin hasn’t fought since last August, a knockout loss at the hands of Mauricio (Shogun) Rua in Brazil. Griffin has lost three of his last five and needs to win this rubber match to stay relevant in the 205-pound division.

Prediction: Ortiz by third-round TKO via ground-and-pound.

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

This middleweight bout should be a stand-up battle with both combatants best known for their striking skills. Le is the flashier of the two, but Cote might possess more power. Cote is also driven to succeed is his return to the UFC, riding a four-fight winning streak from other organizations. Le turned 40 years old since he last entered the Octagon — a TKO loss to Wanderlei Silva in a fight-of-the-night performance last November.

Cote (17-7) has one of the best chins in the business, having never been knocked out, so Le (7-2) will need to be at his kickboxing best to pull off a finish. I can’t see that happening, but I can see an entertaining (if short) tilt . . .

Prediction: Cote by first-round TKO/KO.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

Maia (15-4) is making his welterweight (170-pound) debut, dropping down from 185. With a relatively slim frame, the weight cut shouldn’t pose too big a problem for the world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner. Kim (15-1-1) poses a much bigger challenge, his only career loss coming against current interim champion Carlos Condit last July. But Kim, nicknamed Stun Gun, rebounded to beat Canada’s Sean Pierson to end 2011 and can stay in title contention with a strong showing against Maia.

It will be interesting to see where this fight is contested, on the feet or on the canvas, as Kim specializes in judo and takedowns but may avoid gambling on the ground against Maia, a submission specialist. It wouldn’t surprise me if this scrap stays standing for the most part.

Prediction: Kim by unanimous decision.

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

Speaking of submission specialists, McKenzie is Mr. Guillotine, with his last 11 wins coming via that specific chokehold. McKenzie (13-2) may be a one-trick pony, but his trick is proving pretty effective. Mendes (11-1) certainly knows what to defend against, but he’s likely more concerned with going on the offensive. Coming off his only career loss in January, knocked out in a title fight by featherweight (145-pound) champion Jose Aldo, Mendes will be determined to bounce back with a convincing win.

Prediction: Mendes by first-round TKO via ground-and-pound.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Mike Easton

This is a clash between two exciting bantamweight (135-pound) fighters who are on lengthy winning streaks and are undefeated in the UFC to date. Menjivar (24-8, 3-0 in UFC) has won by submission, decision and knockout thus far and, with another finish here, could be in line to face the winner of Urijah Faber and Renan Barao, who compete for the interim title in Calgary later this month. The same opportunity could be granted to Easton (12-1, 2-0 in UFC), who can stretch his overall win streak to eight by beating Menjivar. Both fighters are well rounded and aggressive, with Menjivar perhaps more technical and Easton more powerful. Sparks are sure to fly when they meet in the middle of the cage in a tantalizing appetizer for another night of great fights.

Prediction: Menjivar by split decision.

Categories: Uncategorized

Mock My Mock: 2012 NHL Draft

June 18, 2012 16 comments

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the first overall pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, poses between Edmonton Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini, left, and head scout Stu MacGregor last June in St. Paul, Minn. The Oilers own the top selection again on Friday in Pittsburgh after winning the draft lottery.

Mock drafts are never easy, but this year’s NHL Entry Draft is almost impossible to predict, from pick No. 1 through 30 — and beyond.

The 2012 class is wide open, so there could be plenty of surprises, not to mention trade activity that changes the course.

There’s the “Russian factor” at play again, plus several draft eligibles missed significant time with injuries this past season, resulting in more questions than answers.

It’s not a particularly strong or deep year, especially past the top 10, so teams could certainly draft by need or go off the board.

Remember when the New Jersey Devils sent analysts scrambling for information with their selection of Adrian Foster in the first round, 28th overall, in 2001? Or the next year, when the Edmonton Oilers announced Jesse Niinimaki, an almost unheard of Finnish forward, as their pick at 15th overall?

Nobody saw those picks coming and Friday’s first round could produce similar drama.

Speaking of wild-cards, this is a good year for goaltenders, but when and where they will go is hard to say. As is the case with every pick this year, time will tell. . . . Or better yet, I’ll tell you right now and you can mock me later when this mock draft blows up in smoke.

Nail Yakupov

1. Edmonton Oilers — Nail Yakupov (RW, OHL, Sarnia). The consensus top prospect is too much to pass up, even given Edmonton’s abundance of skilled forwards and lack of top-end defence. Yakupov is a proven sniper who outscored Steven Stamkos on the same junior team and is committed to playing in North America for the long haul. He patterns his game after Pavel Bure, but also reminds some scouts of a smaller Ilya Kovalchuk (Yakupov is 5’11” and 185 pounds, Kovalchuk is 6’3″ 230 lbs). I’m confident Yakupov will be the first name called on Friday, although I think there’s a slim chance it might not be called by the Oilers, should they elect to trade down and target defence.

Filip Forsberg

2. Columbus Blue Jackets — Filip Forsberg (C, Sweden, Leksand). Already, this pick could be one of a handful of players, but I think Columbus will play it safe with the well-rounded Swede. The Jackets haven’t had any luck with Russians in the past (see Nikita Filatov and Nikolai Zherdev), and they aren’t hurting for defence on their NHL roster or in their farm system. There’s a good chance former first overall pick, Rick Nash, a power forward, is traded this weekend and Forsberg’s addition could help cushion that blow within the fanbase.

Mikhail Grigorenko

3. Montreal Canadiens — Mikhail Grigorenko (C, QMJHL, Quebec). Marc Bergevin strikes me as the kind of rookie GM who won’t be afraid to roll the dice, and I think the “boom” outweighs the “bust” when it comes to this talented Russian. The Habs are hurting for a game-breaking forward and Grigorenko could be exactly what the doctor ordered. Montreal’s scouts have likely watched him as much as anybody, playing in their own backyard. Being drafted out of Quebec — the capital city’s Remparts no less — might also make him an easier sell to French fans.

Ryan Murray

4. New York Islanders — Ryan Murray (D, WHL, Everett). By all accounts, the Islanders are targeting defence with this pick, it’s just a matter of which blue-liner they prefer. Murray’s availability might come as a shock to GM Garth Snow, with many expecting him to go top two, but a pleasant surprise nevertheless. Murray is the safe (and smart) pick here, although he doesn’t possess as much flash or offensive potential as other defencemen in the draft. Snow likes to go for the home run, so I also wouldn’t be stunned to see a scenario similar to 2007 when Los Angeles took Thomas Hickey over Karl Alzner at fourth overall. In this case, my guess would be Mathew Dumba if not Murray.

Alex Galchenyuk

5. Toronto Maple Leafs — Alex Galchenyuk (C, OHL, Sarnia). I think Brian Burke gets his guy here. Of the top-five picks, Galchenyuk best exemplifies what Burke is looking for in a player — combining skill, character and perhaps even some truculence. This is one of those prospects that saw limited action in his draft year, leaving Yakupov as a solo act for much of the season, but Galchenyuk returned for playoffs and, by most accounts, didn’t hurt his draft stock. And despite his father’s Russian heritage, Galchenyuk is American, another trait Burke tends to target.

Griffin Reinhart

6. Anaheim Ducks — Griffin Reinhart (D, WHL, Edmonton). This might not be the most popular pick, but I believe it to be the best pick for the Ducks. They already have plenty of puck-movers and offensive types, building around Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen, with Lubomir Visnosky also still in the fold. What Anaheim lacks is a bigger body with a defence-first mentality that can lean on opposing forwards and clear the crease. Fans might not be too crazy about this pick, especially considering Mark Mitera, a defender also fitting that mold, busted after being a first-round pick in 2006. But Reinhart is better all around, showed more offensive upside in leading Edmonton to a WHL championship and has bloodlines working in his favour — his dad, Paul, played over 700 NHL games as a reliable, two-way defenceman. Scouts say Griffin’s a chip off the old block.

Jacob Trouba

7. Minnesota Wild — Jacob Trouba (D, USA U-18). Another “what-you-see-is-what-you-get” type defenceman, Trouba is essentially an American-born Reinhart. And, to be specific, he’s Minnesota-born, so that should sit well with Wild fans. He’s big, physical and strong defensively, but also a good skater with decent puckhandling and passing skills. He’s not Drew Doughty, but he might be Rob Scuderi, and those complimentary players help win championships. Trouba could be a nice long-term fit alongside last year’s first-rounder, Jonas Brodin.

Teuvo Teravainen

8. Carolina Hurricanes — Teuvo Teravainen (LW, Finland, Jokerit Jr.). The fastest-rising prospect now seems a lock to go top 10, much like Mika Zibanejad last year. Teravainen’s stock has never been higher and most scouts agree his skill-set translates to a top-six NHL forward. Carolina has had success with Finnish players (Jussi Jokinen, Tuomo Ruutu, Joni Pitkanen), so I see a good fit there for Teravainen.

Mathew Dumba

9. Winnipeg Jets — Mathew Dumba (D, WHL, Red Deer). Despite already being strong on the blue-line with Dustin Byfuglien, Zach Bogosian and Tobias Enstrom, the Jets go with the best player available and land a potential steal in Dumba. He’s explosive and entertaining to watch, much like Evander Kane but as a defenceman. If Dumba was a couple inches taller, he’s likely a top five pick as his skill-set warrants.

Morgan Rielly

10. Tampa Bay Lightning — Morgan Rielly (D, WHL, Moose Jaw). This year’s best pure offensive defenceman is coming off a season derailed by knee surgery, but the Lightning have two picks in the top 20 and a need for more point production from the back end. Victor Hedman is developing as more of a shutdown guy, Marc-Andre Bergeron is a riverboat gambler that often gets burned and Mark Barberio is still a maybe at best. Rielly is worth the risk here, with the reward being the perfect set-up man for Steven Stamkos.

Radek Faksa

11. Washington Capitals (from Colorado) — Radek Faksa (C, OHL, Kitchener). The Capitals are also in a position to take the best player available, and that is a big, powerful centre in this case. Potentially a nice future complement to Nicklas Backstrom, forming a formidable 1-2 punch down the middle. And Faksa’s coming from a Kitchener Rangers’ pipeline that has also produced Jeff Skinner and Gabriel Landeskog.

Malcolm Subban

12. Buffalo Sabres — Malcolm Subban (G, OHL, Belleville). The Sabres are set in goal for the immediate future, with Ryan Miller and Jhonas Enroth, but the cupboard is pretty bare beyond that tandem. Subban is an exceptionally gifted athlete that could force his way into the picture sooner than later. The younger brother of Montreal Canadiens defenceman P.K. Subban, he could even sneak into the top 10 like Carey Price did in 2005, perhaps to Winnipeg.

Cody Ceci

13. Dallas Stars — Cody Ceci (D, OHL, Ottawa). The Stars would be thrilled to pick Ceci at this spot, both for need and best player available. His upside is huge, likely greater than that of Reinhart or Trouba, so this could be a pipedream for Dallas depending on the teams ahead of them. Ceci boasts a nice combination of size and skill, pretty much everything scouts want in a defenceman, but unfortunately for him, this is the year of the defenceman at the NHL draft. Either way, expect Dallas to go defence with this pick as the Stars have a shortage in their system and there’s no shortage of options left on the board.

Hampus Lindholm

14. Calgary Flames — Hampus Lindholm (D, Sweden, Rogle Jr.). Another riser, scouts also seem to think Lindholm could be the complete package. Sweden has produced a plethora of talented blue-liners in recent years — from Erik Karlsson and David Rundblad to Jonas Brodin and Oscar Klefbom — and Lindholm is a continuation of that trend. Calgary had a great draft last year, highlighted by stealing Sven Bartschi in the middle of the first round, and this pick could continue that trend, too.

Sebastian Collberg

15. Ottawa Senators — Sebastian Collberg (RW, Sweden, Frolunda Jr.). The Senators are still awaiting word on whether their Swedish captain Daniel Alfredsson, a top-line right-winger, will retire. In the meantime, they have an opportunity to bring a potential clone into the fold in Collberg, who would join an already strong contingent of young Swedes including defenceman Erik Karlsson and fellow forwards Mika Zibanejad and Jakob Silfverberg.

Olli Maatta

16. Washington Capitals — Olli Maatta (D, OHL, London). Back on the board, the Capitals continue to go with the best player available, this time a Finnish defenceman who made a successful transition to North America and improved as the season went on. The first overall pick in last year’s CHL Import Draft, Maatta is well-rounded and has been described by some as a poor man’s Victor Hedman.

Zemgus Girgensons

17. San Jose Sharks — Zemgus Girgensons (C, USHL, Dubuque). The Sharks are pleased to select the versatile Latvian, who possesses great offensive instincts but is no slouch on the defensive side and also brings leadership intangibles.

Andrei Vasilevski

18. Chicago Blackhawks — Andrei Vasilevski (G, Russia, Ufa). The Blackhawks can go best player available or target a need here, and end up with Vasilevski regardless of their approach. A standout for Russia at the world juniors, Vasilevski could be the legitimate starter that Chicago has been longing for. Corey Crawford no longer seems the answer, nor is Ray Emery or any of their current prospects.

Derrick Pouliot

19. Tampa Bay Lightning (from Detroit) — Derrick Pouliot (D, WHL, Portland). The Lightning enter draft day with a need to upgrade their blue-line, preferably with offensive defencemen, so landing both Rielly and Pouliot would definitely be mission accomplished. Pouliot is a former first overall WHL Bantam Draft pick that developed alongside Joe Morrow (Pittsburgh) on Portland’s powerhouse. Pouliot is a great skater with above average puck skills.

Brendan Gaunce

20. Philadelphia Flyers — Brendan Gaunce (C, OHL, Belleville). The Flyers have always been infatuated with power forwards and Gaunce might be the best of the bunch in this 2012 draft class. He can score, hit and create space for his linemates, much like Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds and James van Riemsdyk already do in Philadelphia. Other hard-nosed players that the Flyers might be eyeing include forward Thomas Wilson or defenceman Slater Koekkoek. Expect more sandpaper entering Philadelphia’s system when this pick is announced.

Tomas Hertl

21. Buffalo Sabres (from Nashville) — Tomas Hertl (C, Czech Rep., Slavia). The Sabres tend to take a different approach, valuing skill above all else and Hertl is likely the most skilled forward still on the board with their second pick of the first round. Similar in some regards to Buffalo’s first-rounder from last year, Joel Armia, Hertl also has decent size and a nose for the net.

Slater Koekkoek

22. Pittsburgh Penguins — Slater Koekkoek (D, OHL, Peterborough). Another player hurt by injury this season, Koekkoek had an impressive showing at the scouting combine and could be back on the rise. The Penguins could use a second-coming of Brooks Orpik, who is among the players Koekkoek is often compared to.

Mark Jankowski

23. Florida Panthers — Mark Jankowski (C, Quebec, Stanstead College). Speaking of risers, Jankowski’s stock has been skyrocketing despite playing high school prep hockey against inferior opposition. He’s a playmaker first and foremost and, at 6-foot-2 with room to grow, some see shades of Joe Thornton in his game. Last year, Mark Scheifele went well ahead of schedule at seventh overall to Winnipeg and don’t be surprised if Jankowski does the same by sneaking into the first round as the 43rd-ranked North American skater.

Brady Skjei

24. Boston Bruins — Brady Skjei (D, USA U-18). The Bruins might be enticed by Skjei’s raw package as a 6-foot-3 smooth-skating blue-liner. He has the tools, although some question the toolbox, meaning he might not think the game as good as his peers in this defence-heavy draft. Patience will be key to his development, but Boston can afford to wait.

Matthew Finn

25. St. Louis Blues — Matthew Finn (D, OHL, Guelph). In a normal draft year, Finn could challenge for top-10 status, but he’s another victim of the numbers’ game in the sense there are so many talented defencemen ahead of him this year. The Blues would still be getting a potential top-pairing defender this late in the first round, and a guy who showed well at the 2012 CHL Top Prospects Game in Kelowna.

Pontus Aberg

26. Vancouver Canucks — Pontus Aberg (LW, Sweden, Djurgarden). The Canucks like their Swedish forwards, and why wouldn’t they, with the Sedin twins being their key of success. Aberg will likely never have that kind of impact and may be more comparable to former second-rounder Anton Rodin, but those complimentary players are still key pieces to the puzzle. Aberg is already playing against men in Sweden and producing, with eight goals in his draft year, so there’s positive signs.

Stefan Matteau

27. Phoenix Coyotes — Stefan Matteau (C, USA U-18). The son of, you guessed it, Stephane Matteau, formerly of the New Jersey Devils, is another apple that hasn’t fallen far from the tree. Projecting as a gritty role player, Stefan is very much a “like father, like son” example. He’s not afraid to get his nose dirty and work for every point, a fitting addition to a blue-collar Coyotes club. I could also see Henrik Samuelsson (WHL, Edmonton) or Scott Laughton (OHL, Oshawa) going to Phoenix if not Matteau.

Thomas Wilson

28. New York Rangers — Thomas Wilson (RW, OHL, Plymouth). The Rangers would rush to the podium to pick Wilson, having always coveted size and power forwards. Wilson might be long gone by this point, however, depending whether other teams see him as the next Milan Lucic — he’s 6-foot-4 and likes to fight — or the next Hugh Jessiman, a 6-foot-6 beast-turned-bust that the Rangers took 12th overall in 2003. Glen Sather still ended up with another monster from the 2003 draft, 6-foot-7 Brian Boyle who went 26th overall to Los Angeles, and I don’t think the Rangers’ boss would hesitate in going back to the well for this behemoth.

Oscar Dansk

29. New Jersey Devils — Oscar Dansk (G, Sweden, Brynas Jr.). The Devils had the option to forfeit this pick, or a future first-rounder, as punishment for circumventing the salary cap with Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract. They chose to keep it, somewhat surprisingly, which leads me to believe they have a player, or rather position, in mind. It’s no secret Martin Brodeur is nearing retirement and New Jersey will need a new netminder sooner than later. The Devils have Scott Wedgewood, who played for Canada at this year’s world juniors, and Keith Kinkaid in their system, but neither are considered elite. New Jersey is probably hoping for Subban or Vasilevski, but Dansk also has that potential and would be a nice consolation prize. Much better than the consolation prize the Devils received as runner-up in the Stanley Cup final.

Colton Sissons

Lukas Sutter

30. Los Angeles Kings — Colton Sissons (C, WHL, Kelowna)/Lukas Sutter (C, WHL, Saskatoon). The Kings were crowned champions and thus are left to pick last, something they will gladly do. I’m cheating here as I see the Kings being torn between two similar players and ending up with one of them. Maybe uncle Darryl will have a say in the matter and bring nephew Lukas Sutter into the fold. He’s ranked 39th among North American skaters, but Sutter was recently named to Canada’s roster for this summer’s Canada-Russia Challenge, a four-game tuneup for the world juniors. Sissons, ranked 14th and the top-rated WHL forward, was left off that team and is perhaps slipping out of the first round. Sissons and Sutter will likely be depth players at the NHL level, something along the lines of Jarret Stoll, who had a big hand in the Kings winning this year’s Cup but is now slated to be a free agent on July 1.

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UFC 146: Weighing In On The Heavyweights

It’s been a while since I tested the UFC prediction waters. With my NHL playoff struggles, I figured maybe it was time for a change of scenery — or sport.

And what better time to wade back into the UFC than with an entirely unpredictable, all-heavyweight main card on tap tonight in Las Vegas? UFC 146 is as BIG as it gets, with a ton of muscle — literally a ton, as in more than 2,400 pounds — stepping into the Octagon, headlined by a title fight between reigning champion Junior Dos Santos and two-time former champ Frank Mir. This marks Dos Santos’ first title defence since stripping the belt from Cain Velasquez in November with a quick stoppage during the UFC’s network television debut on FOX. Velasquez is also making his return, taking on Antonio Silva in the co-main event.

From top to bottom, this card has the potential for fireworks. And given the power these heavyweights are packing in every punch, fans won’t want to blink — let alone head to the refrigerator for another round of refreshments during these fights.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

Stylistically, this is an intriguing matchup and a tough first test for Dos Santos as champion. Initially, Dos Santos was to face Allistair Overeem, a massive Dutch kickboxer, in what would have been a stand-up slugfest. That was, until Overeem failed a drug test and was replaced by Mir, a submission specialist that is best known for his ground work. Both Dos Santos and Mir are finishers that start strong and rarely see the second round. By no means do I expect this bout to go the full five rounds, and the winner will undoubtedly be the man who dictates where the fight takes place. Mir’s striking is somewhat under-rated, but if Dos Santos can keep it standing — sprawl and brawl — he should outclass Mir and score some sort of KO/TKO. Likewise, Dos Santos trains with some of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in Brazil, so he’s well versed in grappling and submission defence, but Mir broke his mentor Big Nog’s arm last time out and, therefore, holds the upper hand if and when they hit the mat. I have a funny feeling Mir’s cocky, or courageous, side will get the best of him by trying to stand-and-trade with Dos Santos in the early stages.

Prediction: Dos Santos by first-round KO/TKO.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

Velasquez is hungry, determined to avenge that loss to Dos Santos and earn another title shot — potentially a rematch. Silva, meanwhile, is making his UFC debut after a well travelled career that includes an upset of Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko. I don’t think Silva will be overwhelmed by the bright lights of the big show, as many succumb to in their first UFC fight. I just think he’ll be overwhelmed by Velasquez’s relentless pace.

Prediction: Velasquez by unanimous decision.

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

I’m not a huge fan of either guy, and this is the heavyweight fight I’m least looking forward to. That said, you never know, it could end up being a barnburner. Nelson, better known as Big Country, is quite versatile and not just a brawler as his Tank Abbott-esque exterior suggests. He has heavy hands, but he’s got good submission skills and if he gets on top of you, he’s tough to get off due to his size and smothering effect. Herman has a puncher’s chance, but Nelson’s got a chin that can withstand anything he’ll throw.

Prediction: Nelson by second-round submission (arm triangle).

Stipe Miocic vs. Shane del Rosario

This scrap should be exciting. Two talented, undefeated guys that don’t lack confidence. It will be interesting to see who sets the early tone, who is able to impose their will. Del Rosario would probably be wise to shoot for an early takedown, but, like Mir, I could see him wanting to bang it out for a bit. And, like Mir, I don’t see that strategy ending well given Miocic’s boxing background.

Prediction: Miocic by first-round KO.

Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson

Perhaps my favourite fight on the card, I think it’s a lock to produce a bonus of the night — be it fight, knockout or submission. Johnson just scares me, his destruction of Pat Barry was frightening to say the least. But Struve, the almost seven-foot string-bean, can take a licking and keep on ticking. He’s been bloodied and battered but found ways to win in the past, pulling off a couple improbable submissions. Should the fight go to the ground, Struve will have a definitive edge. But being the opening bout, I think bravado will once again be a factor with Struve keeping it standing  . . . until he gets knocked down.

Prediction: Johnson by first-round KO.

Undercard

Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins = This is Brandao’s first non-TUF fight, and not to take anything away from Elkins, who has won two straight, but this should be a stepping stone for the new Diego. Prediction: Brandao by first-round KO.

Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner = Yes, it’s that Jamie Varner. But no, he’s not the same Jamie Varner he used to be. Barboza is the real deal and the next generation of fighters, which will be evident in this one. Prediction: Barboza by first-round KO.

Jason Miller vs. C.B. Dollaway = Mayhem Miller needs to redeem himself after gassing out and getting embarrassed by Michael Bisping in his return to the Octagon. Cardio won’t be a factor for Miller this time, but Dollaway will put up a decent fight. Prediction: Miller by split decision.

Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig = Two guys that like to bang, one of them is even nicknamed Bang (Ludwig). But Hardy has been training with Mir and trying to add new dimensions to his game in hopes of ending a lengthy losing streak while keeping his job in MMA’s top promotion. If Hardy fights smart and doesn’t just trade bombs in the pocket, he should have what it takes here. Prediction: Hardy by referee stoppage, ground and ground.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass = Volkmann is nicknamed Christmas of all things, and has quietly put together a five-fight winning streak. Sass is 12-0 with 11 submission wins. Something tells me this is the night before Christmas and soon Volkmann will be sleeping. Prediction: Sass by submission (triangle choke).

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira = This is Teixeira’s UFC debut, but he’s beaten a handful of UFC veterans in other promotions. Kingsbury is a former TUF contestant that has stuck around but hasn’t been overly impressive. It’s a toss-up for me . . . Prediction: Kingsbury by majority decision.

Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda = Brown has fought the best of the best in the featherweight division and is a former WEC champion, while this is a big step up in competition for Pineda. I think it’ll be too much to handle at this point. Prediction: Brown by unanimous decision.

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NHL Playoff Predictions: Glamourous Cup Final Shaping Up

The Associated Press
Los Angeles Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick celebrates with captain Dustin Brown following the Kings’ sweep of the St. Louis Blues in the second round of NHL playoffs. Los Angeles advanced to face the Phoenix Coyotes in the Western Conference final.

Many NHL playoff prognosticators will be running for the hills after this post-season, and I’ll be giving chase by the looks of it.
With the third round starting today, anybody who predicted third-seeded Phoenix — sixth-ranked based on regular-season point totals — would be facing eighth-seeded L.A. in the Western Conference final is, well, a genius. A month or two ago, that same person would have been labelled a fool and laughed out of most rooms. But nobody is laughing now, except maybe the Las Vegas bookies, who have to be raking it in hand over fist with all these upsets.
The Eastern Conference final is a little different story, with the top-seeded New York Rangers surviving two Game 7s against No. 8 Ottawa and No. 7 Washington, advancing to face No. 6 New Jersey.
I went 1-for-4 in the second round — only calling the L.A. Kings’ ousting of St. Louis — to bring my putrid predictions record to 4-for-12. There are power plays that connect at a better clip than my 33.3 per cent.
Making matters worse, I’m now 0-for-4 in my Stanley Cup final predictions — initially picking Pittsburgh to beat Chicago, then, after both those teams were booted in the first round, Philadelphia to defeat Nashville. Again, both teams were sent packing in the second round — Philadelphia falling to New Jersey and Nashville getting dumped by Phoenix.
So here I sit, trying to salvage some pride by correctly predicting the final three series, starting with the conference finals.

Western Conference

Phoenix (3) vs. Los Angeles (8)

I was on the Kings’ bandwagon last round, so there’s no point in hopping off now. This isn’t a marquee matchup for Canadian fans. That potential was lost with L.A. upsetting Vancouver in the opening round. But there’s some appeal to this series, especially for fans of good goaltending with L.A.’s Jonathan Quick and Phoenix’s Mike Smith among the Conn Smythe Trophy contenders as playoff MVP. Smith, especially, is the main reason the Coyotes are still playing despite getting outshot by Nashville and Chicago. Quick has been every bit as solid, turning aside the top-seeded Canucks before sweeping the No. 2 Blues. Los Angeles should be slightly fresher, having played only nine playoff games this spring compared to 11 for Phoenix. The Kings also have more scoring depth up front, including some big forwards who could make Smith’s job all the more difficult.
Prediction: Los Angeles in 6.

Eastern Conference

New York (1) vs. New Jersey (6)

I didn’t expect the Devils to be here, to dismantle the Flyers like they did, but I should know better than to bet against future Hall-of-Famer Martin Brodeur. He’ll backstop New Jersey in a goaltender’s duel against New York’s Henrik Lundqvist, a Vezina Trophy finalist this season. Expect both these series to feature low-scoring, close games, though there could be a bit more run-and-gun here. The Devils outgunned a Philadelphia team that was full of firepower, albeit lacking between the pipes with the ever-shaky (and quirky) Ilya Bryzgalov. New Jersey will have a tougher time beating Lundqvist. Personally, I prefer New York’s defence but New Jersey’s offence. What’s that cliché about defence winning championships?
Prediction: New York in 7.

And the newest winner is . . .

That would make for a big city Cup final between New York and Los Angeles — Times Square-versus-Hollywood. Talk about a dream come true for NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, a much more desirable pairing for ratings than, say, New Jersey and Phoenix. For what it’s worth — and that’s less than two cents — I now have the Kings getting crowned rather than King Hank (Lundqvist), with L.A. hoisting hockey’s holy grail in six games. However it plays out, I’m sure it’ll still be fun to watch. So stay tuned and enjoy.
Larry Fisher is a sports reporter with a passion for hockey at all levels. Follow him on Twitter @LarryFisher_KDC or email larry.fisher@ok.bc.ca.
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NHL Playoff Predictions: Round Deux

April 28, 2012 Leave a comment

LEN REDKOLES/GETTY IMAGES
Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, left, shakes hands with Philadelphia's Claude Giroux after the Flyers clinched their first-round playoff series with a 5-1 victory in Game 6. Philadelphia next faces the New Jersey Devils in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

This just in: I should stick to my day job. That being reporting on sports, not predicting their outcomes — at least not in print.

The first round of NHL playoffs were not kind to me, or many so-called experts. If not for saving a little bit of face with the recent Game 7 results, I very well could have went 0-for-8 and looked a fool. Faced with that prospect, I probably would have thrown in the towel and shied away from the second round. However, buoyed by my late surge of success in correctly picking Washington, New Jersey and the New York Rangers as victors in the three series requiring a decisive game, I may as well try to ride that momentum. Or, let it ride, as the game goes in Las Vegas.

While I wound up 3-for-8 in the opening round, all three of those winners prevailed in one-goal games — two of them needing overtime, or double OT in the Devils’ case.

I went a shameful 0-for-4 in my West predictions, the conference I pay closest attention to throughout the regular season because of my boyhood allegiances to the now playoff-challenged Edmonton Oilers.

The four remaining teams —St. Louis, Phoenix, Nashville and Los Angeles — have never hoisted the Stanley Cup and are already in uncharted territory for the most part. Nevertheless, this round is about redemption so what better place to start than in the West . . .

St. Louis (2) vs. Los Angeles (8)

I never saw L.A.’s upset of Vancouver coming, nor did I foresee St. Louis being so savvy in ousting battle-tested San Jose. I expected — and wrongly predicted — the Canucks and Sharks to advance and be matched up in the second round. Now comes the challenge of righting that wrong in a matchup with many variables and few certainties. The Blues have home-ice advantage, a Cup-winning coach in Ken Hitchcock and depth throughout their lineup. But the Kings seemed to find their long-lost scoring touch and are backstopped by Vezina candidate Jonathan Quick. Comparing rosters, L.A. and St. Louis are, well, quite comparable, with a similar make-up that should make for an evenly matched, entertaining series. If the Kings can score a split in St. Louis, and especially if they steal the opener, I like their chances to pull off another improbable series win. What can I say, they won me over by beating a Canucks team built to contend.

Prediction: Los Angeles in six.

Phoenix (3) vs. Nashville (4)

I was very impressed with Nashville’s dismantling of Detroit, but less than impressed by Phoenix squeaking past Chicago. Goaltenders helped both the Coyotes and Predators get here, the only difference being Phoenix also had assistance from the opposing netminder. Without a couple soft overtime-winning goals yielded by Corey Crawford, the Blackhawks could — and perhaps should — be in this position. But I’ll digress, and give credit where it’s due when it comes to Coyotes ’keeper Mike Smith. He carried Phoenix, much like Pekke Rinne, another Vezina nominee, did Nashville. I have to give Rinne the edge this round and I much prefer his supporting cast on paper.

Prediction: Nashville in five.

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers (1) vs. Washington (7)

This series could really go either way, but I had a funny feeling about Washington before the playoffs and I still like the Capitals as a darkhorse. Again, goaltending will be a big factor with New York’s Henrik Lundqvist also in the Vezina running, while Washington’s Braden Holtby enjoyed a coming-out party against Boston — outduelling, and outlasting, last year’s Vezina and Conn Smythe winner, Tim Thomas. If Holtby’s heroics continue, the Capitals have enough offensive firepower to compete with any team and could actually overwhelm the Rangers.

Prediction: Washington in six.

Philadelphia (5) vs. New Jersey (6)

I’ve picked three underdogs thus far in the second round, perhaps influenced by the amount of first-round upsets. That trend stops here, though, as I think Philadelphia is a sure bet to beat New Jersey. The Devils struggled with the Panthers and will have their hands much fuller with a Flyers team that, at times, had its way with Cup-favourite Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is much deeper up front and should be able to expose an aging Martin Brodeur. So as long as Ilya Bryzgalov can provide adequate goaltending, the Flyers should breeze into the conference final.

Prediction: Philadelphia in five.

And the new winner is . . .

Given my Stanley Cup prediction is totally scrapped after the first round, I’ll start from scratch there too. For the record, I had Pittsburgh beating Chicago in five games, with Chicago eliminating Vancouver in the West final and Pittsburgh getting by Washington in the East final. My lone survivor from that final four is Washington, but after watching Philadelphia torch Pittsburgh, I now have the Flyers as the team to beat. My new (and hopefully improved) prediction has Philadelphia defeating Nashville in seven games to end its 37-year Cup drought.

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NHL Playoff Predictions: Guesses and Gut Feelings

April 11, 2012 1 comment

SHAUN BEST/REUTERS
Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby hoists the Stanley Cup after his team beat the Detroit Red Wings in Game 7 of the 2009 NHL Stanley Cup Final.

It’s that time of the year again, when the real games begin. Yes, the NHL playoffs are upon us.

While my boyhood team, the Edmonton Oilers, had reason to celebrate on Tuesday — winning the NHL draft lottery for a third straight year — 16 teams enter the post-season with Stanley Cup aspirations. Some more realistic than others, of course, but when the puck drops, anything can happen.

Smart money is on certain clubs based on regular-season ranking, but upsets aren’t unprecedented and who doesn’t enjoy rooting for underdogs? With nothing to lose or gain — aside from eating crow or earning bragging rights — I’ll try my hand at the prediction game again.

May as well start in the Western Conference where much of the local and provincial interest lies. Here goes nothing . . .

Vancouver (1) vs. Los Angeles (8)

A rematch of a first-round series from two years ago that Vancouver won in six games, I’m anticipating a case of déjà vu here. Expect a low-scoring battle as Roberto Luongo and Jonathan Quick engage in a goaltender’s duel. I don’t see Cory Schneider factoring into the equation, at least not yet. I think the Canucks have more firepower, enough to overpower the Kings, especially if Daniel Sedin returns from his concussion to net a few goals.

Prediction: Vancouver in six.

St. Louis (2) vs. San Jose (7)

The Sharks are underdogs, but only on standing. On paper and on the ice, these two teams match up very evenly, and San Jose has playoff experience on its side. That could prove beneficial, but I have a feeling whoever wins Game 1 wins this series. If Jaroslav Halak can channel his past playoff heroics and outplay Antti Niemi, that might be the Blues’ best chance. I just think the Sharks have been here before and will find a way to prevail. Call it a hunch.

Prediction: San Jose in six.

Phoenix (3) vs. Chicago (6)

The Blackhawks are the lower seed but had the higher point total in the regular season. Chicago captain Jonathan Toews (concussion) is expected back and, despite a lengthy layoff, is likely to be an impact player in this series. The Coyotes overachieved in the eyes of most this season, and playoff success has never been their forte. The Hawks are deeper with more talent overall, so with any kind of respectable goaltending from Corey Crawford (and/or Ray Emery), they have to be considered favourites. I don’t even think it’s close.

Prediction: Chicago in five.

Nashville (4) vs. Detroit (5)

Flip a coin on this one. The experts are split and I have mixed emotions too. I know the Predators have loaded up for a playoff run, but they might have met their match in the first round. It’s hard to bet against battle-tested Detroit under any circumstances. The Red Wings’ core isn’t getting any younger, but, surprisingly, they aren’t getting any — or much — worse with age, either. Detroit might be a bit better up front; Nashville a bit better on the back end. In no scenario do I foresee a short series. Anything less than six games would be a shocking result to me. Heads or tails . . .

Prediction: Detroit in seven.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

N.Y. Rangers (1) vs. Ottawa (8)

The Senators are getting some love in mainstream media, maybe because they are Canada’s other team or because they won the season series 3-1. I’m not buying it. New York was a top team from start to finish and doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses for Ottawa to exploit. Stranger things have happened and who knows if the Sens can snatch a split of the first two games in the Big Apple, but I’m going with my gut — and the bookies — on this series.

Prediction: New York in five.

Boston (2) vs. Washington (7)

The defending Stanley Cup champion Bruins won’t have an easy path to repeating. Don’t plan another parade in Beantown just yet. The Capitals aren’t burdened by expectations for a change and I fully expect Washington to embrace its underdog status. The Capitals have all the skill in the world, but their heart is often called into question. No better time than now for captain Alex Ovechkin and Co. to answer their critics. The goaltending matchup certainly favours Boston with reigning Conn Smythe and Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas pitted against playoff debutant Braden Holtby, but I’m sensing a coming-out party — for Holtby and the Caps.

Prediction: Washington in six.

Florida (3) vs. New Jersey (6)

Much like the Phoenix-Chicago pairing, Florida is ranked higher even though New Jersey produced more points this season. The Panthers are back in the playoff picture for the first time in a long time — like more than a decade — while the Devils are returning to the dance after a rare hiatus last spring. New Jersey appears to have the edge on paper, at least up front and in goal, plus many of its players are familiar with the post-season grind. Unless Florida wins the opener, I think the Panthers are about to be overwhelmed — much like they were back in 2000 when the Devils swept their first-round series. Dust off those brooms . . .

Prediction: New Jersey in four.

Pittsburgh (4) vs. Philadelphia (5)

This might be the most hyped series, and rightfully so. Two Cup contenders and bitter cross-state rivals facing off in the first round: It doesn’t get much better than that. Both teams have their go-to guys, but if I’m going to war and can only take one NHL roster, I’d hitch my wagon to Pittsburgh. No disrespect to Philly, I’d probably pick the Flyers over anybody else in the East, but the Penguins are legit. If Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang can stay healthy and Marc-Andre Fleury plays up to his potential, the Penguins could be unstoppable. Crosby could be rusty, or he could be fresh. That’s a matter of opinion, but as Sid showed at the Vancouver Olympics, he rises to the occasion. Given the elevated intensity here, I think Crosby emerges as the ultimate difference-maker.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in seven.

And the winner is . . .

I’ll take this one step — or three rounds — further and predict that Pittsburgh hoists hockey’s holy grail this June, defeating Chicago in five games for the Stanley Cup. Loathe it or love it, that prognostication also has Chicago beating Vancouver in the West final, while Pittsburgh knocks off Washington in the East final.

Larry Fisher is a sports reporter with a passion for hockey at all levels. Follow him on Twitter @LarryFisher_KDC or email larry.fisher@ok.bc.ca.

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Justin Schultz: From top NHL prospect to top free agent?

Photo courtesy UWBadgers.com
Justin Schultz, seen here unleashing a slapshot during NCAA action for the University of Wisconsin Badgers this season, is generating a lot of hype for his on-ice talents and off-ice contract situation.

Justin Schultz has a big decision to make – to sign or not to sign with the Anaheim Ducks? And if not, then where to sign after July 1st, when he’ll suddenly become one of the NHL’s most coveted free agents despite not even debuting yet.
The West Kelowna product and former Westside Warriors defenceman, who turns 22 on July 6, just finished his third NCAA season with the University of Wisconsin Badgers and now is expected to turn pro in the fall rather than return for his senior year. By all accounts, Schultz has outgrown the collegiate game, with some scouting reports suggesting he could step into the NHL as an immediate impact player – a puck-moving, power-play quarterback capable of challenging for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. That is, however, dependent on Schultz signing with the right team, of which he’ll have 30 to choose from should he not ink a deal with Anaheim between now and July 1.
Media speculation is rampant that Schultz will hold out for his pick of the litter and spurn the Ducks, who selected him in the second round (43rd overall) of the 2008 NHL draft. A loophole in the current collective bargaining agreement allows for that option, though most prospects come to terms on entry-level contracts with the teams that drafted them.
Blake Wheeler is among the exceptions, notoriously signing with Boston rather than Phoenix, which essentially wasted its fifth overall pick in 2004 on the former University of Minnesota Golden Gopher.
Anaheim still has a few months to negotiate with Schultz in hopes of avoiding a similar fate, though reports suggest if Schultz was interested in playing for the Ducks, he’d already be in their lineup.
Apparently Anaheim’s preference was to sign him as soon as Wisconsin’s season ended on March 11, with a playoff loss to the Denver Pioneers. Other NCAA prospects, such as forwards Jaden Schwartz (St. Louis Blues) and Reilly Smith (Dallas Stars), did exactly that this spring, but with the NHL season ending on Saturday and Schultz still on the sidelines, the rumour mill has him leaning toward free agency.
That might be in Schultz’s best interests, financially and from a hockey standpoint. Not that he couldn’t fit well in Anaheim, alongside blossoming blue-line talents Cam Fowler and Luca Sbisa, two former first-rounders, but there may be better opportunities with other teams. The Edmonton Oilers, for example, would love to add an NHL-ready defence prospect to their youth movement led by forwards Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. At the other end of the spectrum, even the Vancouver Canucks would likely extend an offer to bring Schultz home to B.C., with a chance to play for a perennial contender.
For his part, Schultz has kept quiet about his future and intentions.
“In my heart I know I can play up there (in the NHL),” Schultz told htrnews.com, a Wisconsin-based news service, last Wednesday. “We just feel that it’s best just to focus on my school (work) and get this year done with.
“We feel it’s best to finish out the school year and then look at my options and then see what’s best for me.”
One thing is for certain: there will be no shortage of teams lining up for Schultz’s services should he be available on July 1.
On a recent TSN broadcast discussing this off-season’s most sought after free agents, hockey insider Bob McKenzie threw Schultz’s name into the mix, with the likes of New Jersey forward Zach Parise and Nashville defenceman Ryan Suter.
That’s heady company, no doubt.
So what has teams clamouring over Schultz?
Well, he’s only the NCAA’s leading scorer among defencemen for a second straight season, finishing 20th overall in 2011-12 with 16 goals and 44 points in 37 games. Seven of those goals were on the power play. In 2010-11, Schultz led Wisconsin in scoring with 18 goals and 47 points in 41 games, including nine power-play markers, to finish tied for 17th overall with the aforementioned Jaden Schwartz, formerly of Colorado College, who captained Canada at this year’s world juniors and recently scored in his NHL debut.
That season, as a sophomore, Schultz outscored two Wisconsin teammates that are now also enjoying stellar NHL rookie seasons in defenceman Jake Gardiner (Toronto Maple Leafs) and forward Craig Smith (Nashville Predators). In fact, Schultz’s emergence made Gardiner expendable, resulting in a trade from Anaheim to Toronto last summer.
Now, if there’s smoke where there’s fire, the Ducks could wind up burned by that gamble. Or, this could be much ado about nothing, and Schultz will end the delay by signing with Anaheim ahead of the July 1 deadline. However it plays out, Schultz will enter next season with lofty expectations thanks to this exposure and a dominant NCAA career that twice had him in the running for the Hobey Baker Award as U.S. college player of the year.
ICE CHIPS: Schultz was a potential Hobey Baker finalist again this season, but was eliminated last Thursday with the announcement of the top three candidates: Spencer Abbott, a senior forward from the University of Maine who promptly signed with Toronto on Friday; Jack Connolly, a senior free-agent forward from the University of Minnesota-Duluth; and Austin Smith, another senior forward from Colgate University who was drafted and signed by the Dallas Stars. . . . Smith, a Dallas native and no relation to Reilly Smith of Mimico, Ont., also has an Okanagan connection. Austin Smith played one season with the BCHL’s Penticton Vees, scoring 32 goals and 67 points in 60 regular-season games, then adding 11 goals and 22 points in 15 playoff games en route to winning the 2008 league championship.
Larry Fisher is a sports reporter for The Daily Courier. Follow him on Twitter @LarryFisher_KDC. He can also be contacted via email at larry.fisher@ok.bc.ca

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UFC 140: Betting against Brazil, Nogueira Bros.

December 10, 2011 3 comments

We’re on the eve of another stacked UFC card in Toronto. While not quite as hyped or historic as UFC 129 at Rogers Centre back in April, Saturday’s UFC 140 card at Air Canada Centre is every bit as intriguing.

Headlined by a light-heavyweight title fight between champion Jon (Bones) Jones and challenger Lyoto (The Dragon) Machida, a former holder of the 205-pound belt, the evening also includes the Nogueira brothers fighting on the same card for the first time since 2006. In co-main events, Big Nog (Antônio Rodrigo) rematches Frank Mir in a heavyweight bout that he originally lost in late 2008, and Little Nog (Antônio Rogério) meets Tito (The People’s Champ) Ortiz in a light-heavyweight tilt that could also produce fireworks.

For those wondering, yes Tito changed his moniker — he’s no longer the Huntington Beach Bad Boy — and no, Little Nog isn’t that much smaller than his twin bro. Big Nog tips the scales at about 245 pounds, while his brother cuts some weight to make the 205-pound limit in his division.

Rounding out the 12-fight card, which features a United States-versus-Brazil theme in the three marquee matches, are six homegrown Canadian fighters — Toronto’s Claude Patrick, London, Ont.’s Mark Hominick, Polish-born-but-Winnipeg-raised Krzysztof Soszynski, Halifax, N.S.’s John Makdessi, Montreal’s Yves Jabouin, Toronto’s Mark Bocek and, last but not least, an acquaintance of mine, Saskatoon’s Mitch Clarke.

Kelowna’s Rory MacDonald was also expected to face Brian Ebersole, but withdrew due to injury with Patrick replacing him on the main card. It’s been a tough year and a bit for MacDonald since moving to Montreal to train with welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre, who is also sidelined with a knee injury that requires surgery.

Those still physically capable of climbing into the cage shouldn’t disappoint us on Saturday night. Without further ado, here’s my picks:

Jon Jones (14-1-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2-0)

Oddly enough, if the weigh-ins are any indication, Machida will be the fan favourite after getting greeted with cheers and even chants of his name to a mixed reaction, mostly boos, for Jones. I’m not sure where the hate comes from, but the love is likely a result of Machida’s most recent performance — a front-kick KO that retired Randy Couture in the UFC’s Toronto debut. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, as Jones will only use those jeers as added motivation.

Regardless, this is a fun fight from a stylistic perspective, both being elusive with innovative striking. Dana White always says styles make fights and this could be one for the ages if Machida comes to scrap and doesn’t stay on the defensive. We all know Jones will be pushing the pace and attacking from all angles, which is why it’s impossible to bet against the uber-confident champ. I don’t think this one goes the distance and it might be over in the blink of an eye, but I’ll say Jones by second-round TKO, possibly ground-and-pound after a takedown.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1) vs. Frank Mir (15-5-0)

I’m expecting more of the same from their initial encounter, where Mir dominated the stand-up and eventually scored a TKO win. I do believe Big Nog took Mir lightly the first time around and that his preparation was also affected by a staph infection, but I’m not convinced a healthier, hungrier Nogueira is enough to avenge that loss. He’s also older and Mir’s striking has only gotten better in the last three years, so unless Nogueira can get this fight to the ground or Mir gets cocky and takes it there himself, I think history repeats itself in this case. I’ll say Mir by TKO late in an action-packed first round.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-5-0) vs. Tito Ortiz (16-9-1)

Ortiz is really trying to cultivate his legacy as more hero than heel, more role model than ruthless villain, and sporting a Leafs jersey to the weigh-in was a nice touch. I personally preferred his old-school, take-no-prisoners approach, but as long as he still brings it after Bruce Buffer announces his new nickname, then I’ll accept this squeaky clean, boy-next-door image he’s portraying. And if Friday’s stare-down was as serious as it looked, then Ortiz still means business.

Both these fighters are well-rounded, seasoned veterans, but both seem willing and wanting to stand and bang, vowing to knock each other out. That is easier said than done, with Nogueira only having one KO loss and Ortiz three TKO defeats, none of which he was actually unconscious. Ortiz has eight (T)KO wins to Nogueira’s five, yet they sound equally confident in the ability of their striking skills to finish this fight. I’m not buying it, I think this fight goes to the ground at some point and Ortiz will be able to control Little Nog with superior wrestling combined with submission defence, doing enough damage on the mat to score a decision victory.

Claude Patrick (14-1-0) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1)

Turns out, we still have a Bad Boy on this card with Ebersole boasting that nickname. It certainly sounds meaner than The Prince and Ebersole has lived up to it in beating Chris Lytle and Dennis Hallman in his only two UFC fights to date. Patrick is also a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, winning here over Daniel Roberts in April. This one is somewhat of a toss-up as the combatants appear similarly skilled, but I’ll go with the Canuck and say Patrick by submission based on the fact 64 per cent of his wins have come by submission while 64 per cent of Ebersole’s losses have also ended in submission.

For the record, I would have taken MacDonald (12-1-0) over Ebersole by first-round TKO, reminiscent of his August rout over Mike Pyle.

Mark Hominick (20-9-0) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3-0)

This matchup has Fight Of The Night written all over it, and maybe another bonus for best nicknames — The Machine vs. The Korean Zombie. Both 145-pounders are known for their frenetic pace — aren’t they all in the featherweight division? — and for engaging in memorable brawls. Hominick is coming off a fight-of-the-year candidate against reigning champion Jose Aldo, while who could forget last year’s war between Jung and Leonard Garcia. The judges awarded that slugfest to Garcia by split decision, but Jung got the last laugh earlier this year by submitting Garcia via a rare Twister in their rematch. Hominick also dropped a decision to Aldo in the co-main event of that record-setting Rogers Centre show, and has since endured the loss of longtime coach and mentor Shawn Tompkins.

The more times I watch the original Jung-versus-Garcia barnburner, the more I realize Jung can take a beating and keep pressing forward. However, I think Hominick’s precision striking can stop The Korean Zombie in his tracks over time. I’ll say The Machine by third-round stoppage, perhaps even a buzzer beater to open the main card.

Krzysztof Soszynski (26-11-1) vs. Igor Pokrajac (23-8-0)

Again, a job well done by UFC matchmaker Joe Silva. Flip a coin here as their records and even their competition are comparable, with both losing to Stephan Bonnar last year, but both rebounding with wins earlier this year. Both have a history of finishing fights (only six decision wins between them in 49 victories) and doing so in diverse fashion — Soszynski with 11 subs and 10 (T)KOs to Pokrajac’s 12 (T)KOs and eight subs.

I’m taking Soszynski by second-round TKO solely based on home-cage advantage and a slight edge in Octagon experience with eight UFC fights to Pokrajac’s five.

John Makdessi (9-0-0) vs. Dennis Hallman (50-14-2)

Hallman missed weight on his first attempt, tipping the scales at 158.5 pounds in his return to the lightweight (155-pound) division. This isn’t his first rodeo — not even close — so that tells me Hallman’s cut and/or his camp didn’t go as planned. Dropping down from welterweight after an embarrassing loss to Ebersole — embarrassing in effort and attire — Hallman’s best years appear to be behind him, while Makdessi is trending upward. I expect The Bull to be bullish in pursuit of the aging and ailing Superman, with Makdessi scoring a TKO stoppage sooner than later for another Canadian victory.

Yves Jabouin (16-7-0) vs. Walel Watson (9-2-0)

I’ll admit I had to Google Watson to see what he’s all about, not usually a good omen for a fighter when this longtime fight fan has never heard of you. What I found was a lanky bantamweight — standing 5-foot-11 with a 135-pound frame, aptly nicknamed The Gazelle, though The Giraffe also would be fitting — but all joking aside, Watson made short work of his first UFC foe by stopping Joseph Sandoval with strikes just over one minute into their October match. Jabouin will be a step up in competition — having faced the likes of Hominick, Sam Stout, Pablo Garza and Jonathan Brookins, among others — so expect that experience to be evident. Jabouin is also a striker by trade, so if Watson let his last finish get to his head, he could be grounded early in this one. Jabouin will be giving up three inches in height and maybe even more in reach, so it might take time to find his range, but I’ll keep picking Canadians and say Jabouin by second-round KO.

Mark Bocek (9-4-0) vs. Nik Lentz (21-3-2)

This fight seems buried for some reason, but don’t sleep on it. And don’t look too much into Bocek’s less-than-impressive record; instead read his resumé, which boasts bouts against Ben Henderson (decision loss in Toronto), Dustin Hazelett (submission over rising contender at the time), Jim Miller (decision loss to another top contender) and lightweight champ Frankie Edgar (TKO loss in Bocek’s UFC debut in 2007). Lentz is no slouch, beating both Tyson Griffin and Andre Winner by decision and unbeaten in his last 15 fights dating to 2007 (two draws and a no contest over that span).

Lentz strikes me as more of a grinder, good at everything but not great at anything, thus many of his fights end in decisions. Bocek is more of a finisher with submissions and jiu-jitsu his specialty, so officially call me a homer and put me down as picking Bocek to earn Submission Of The Night.

Mitch Clarke (9-0-0) vs. John Cholish (7-1-0)

I couldn’t help but feel for Clarke on Friday, making his UFC debut on home soil in a pressure-packed situation and having to be the first to set foot on the scale. Looking slightly sheepish, he shed his shorts for Dana White’s towel treatment to ensure he made weight, only to have the athletic commissioner announce 149.5 pounds — well short of the 156-pound maximum. Suddenly looking a little more puzzled, Clarke was about to step off when the commissioner corrected his weight to a more reasonable 154.5.

Considering he often cuts down from as much as 190 pounds — yes 35 pounds from his walking weight, not entirely uncommon for mixed martial artists or wrestlers — Clarke looked like a weight was lifted from his shoulders prior to a brief-and-good-natured stare-down with Cholish.

There’s no ill-will in this fight, no trash-talking in the build-up, just two guys looking to make a name for themselves on MMA’s biggest stage. I admittedly know next-to-nothing about Cholish, another debutant, but more-than-most about Clarke. The latter is your prototypical well-mannered, soft-spoken Prairie boy that doesn’t look the part of a professional fighter. But I’ve watched him fight in person at my last job posting in Lloydminster and he can certainly flip the switch when given permission by the referee. Speaking of refs, Clarke is also quite capable in that capacity, officiating several matches for the Evolution Fighting Championship and Lloydminster Proving Ground. But given his competitive nature as a former college wrestler, Clarke would much rather be part of the action than overseeing it.

He’ll be front and centre come Saturday night with plenty of Prairie supporters in his corner. Providing Clarke can guard against a Jason Miller-esque adrenaline dump and perform up to his potential, I’m confident he’ll turn heads and have his hand raised when the dust settles. I’m thinking this bout could go to a decision with neither fighter wanting to make a mistake and their skill-sets essentially cancelling each other out, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Clarke pulls off a submission with six already to his credit.

As for the remaining two fights — Jared Hamman (13-3-0)-versus-Constantinos Philippou (8-2-0) at middleweight (185 pounds) and Rich Attonito (10-4-0)-versus-Jake Hecht (10-2-0) at welterweight — I’ll roll the dice on Hamman via TKO and Attonito by decision.

For a split second there, I thought Jochen Hecht the NHL player had a career change, but it’s probably in his best interests to stick to hockey. And in case you’re curious, I highly doubt there’s any relation between them, with Jochen hailing from Germany and Jake from Missouri.

Nevertheless, this could be quite a night for Canadian fight fans if my predictions come to fruition and one Brazilians would sooner forget. Of course, the likelihood of every Canadian winning and every Brazilian losing is rather remote, with Brazil often touted the birthplace of MMA thanks to the legendary Royce Gracie. That’s the best part about MMA, though, anything can happen and nothing is truly predictable, so let’s all just sit back and enjoy another entertaining UFC card from top to bottom.

Categories: Uncategorized

Who Makes Team Canada…and Why!

November 30, 2011 2 comments

Tis the season to start thinking about the world juniors.

For Team Canada’s coaching staff, headed up by Don Hay of the Vancouver Giants, and head scout Kevin Prendergast, a lot of thought has already went into their roster make-up.

Hay

Prendergast

Past track records, summer evaluation camp performances and play to this point in the season were all taken into account in announcing the 41 invites to next month’s selection camp in Calgary, Dec. 10-14 (http://tsn.ca/world_jrs/feature/?id=54015).

Canada always ices a medal contender at this under-20 tournament and, looking at the list of potential players, this year should be exception. Potential is the key word, however, as anything can happen over the course of a couple weeks and nothing is guaranteed once the puck drops on Boxing Day with Canada facing Finland in Edmonton.

First things first, pick the team. Based on the 1992-birthdate or younger criteria, Canada could ice forward lines featuring Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Brett Connolly, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sean Couturier. Just think about that “potential” dominance for a second . . . OK, now forget about it.

None of those studs will be suiting up for Canada, at least it’s highly unlikely, with all six starring for their respective NHL teams and not expected to be released for this year’s showcase.

Still, Canada won’t be dressing any duds. Of the 41 invites, all are capable of competing at the highest junior level, but only 22 will make the final cut to serve their nation.

Who will be called upon to don the Red and White come Christmastime remains a matter of much debate. Internet message boards, such as HFboards.com, are filled with 40-plus page threads discussing lineup options and even line combinations for Canada.

Nobody in that forum is privy to Prendergast’s crystal ball or Hay’s notepad, but some predictions seem more educated — or at least calculated — than others.

Filtering through the fan-boys — the guys clearly, and conveniently, finding room for their favourite NHL team’s prospects or their local CHL team’s leading scorer — there seems to be rhyme for some of this reasoning.

The names that appear on almost every mock roster include the trio of returnees from last year’s silver-medal winning squad: Forwards Jaden Schwartz and Quinton Howden, and goaltender Mark Visentin, though the latter two aren’t locks.

Here’s who I have making the grade:

Forwards

Schwartz

1) Jaden Schwartz — A scoring winger with a wicked shot and an unmatched will to win. He also has experience from last year, though his tournament was cut short by a broken ankle. His sister, Mandi, lost her battle with cancer last April and Schwartz will also be using that close, and highly publicized, bond as inspiration. Expect him to wear a letter and be a key contributor throughout this year’s tournament.

Gallagher

2) Brendan Gallagher — The next biggest lock, in my opinion. Hay’s golden boy in Vancouver, Gallagher almost made last year’s world-junior team, then almost stuck with the Montreal Canadiens out of training camp this season. He’s small in stature, but plays a big, power game that personifies the old cliché — not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog. Gallagher’s been a Giant of a man among boys in the WHL this season, so pencil him into the top-six for Canada.

Howden

3) Quinton Howden — Experience helps his cause, as does versatility in Howden’s ability to play a scoring or shutdown role. There’s also some familiarity here, being a WHL guy, although Moose Jaw is in the opposite conference and Howden doesn’t get many chances to leave an impression on Hay. This call may ultimately be made by one of Canada’s assistant coaches, Ryan Huska (WHL, Kelowna Rockets), who was also behind the bench in Buffalo for last year’s world juniors. I have Huska endorsing Howden, thus securing his spot.

Huberdeau

4) Jonathan Huberdeau — He’s a winner, a Memorial Cup MVP last season and arguably the most skilled prospect for this team. He’s scoring at more than two points-per-game this season in the QMJHL and his offence will be a welcomed addition for Canada.

Strome

5) Ryan Strome — Likewise to Huberdeau, his offensive instincts are all-world and should be enough to warrant a spot. Strome will need to show some sort of commitment to playing an all-around game to win over the coaching staff, but I think his scoring prowess is too much to pass up.

Stone

6) Mark Stone — Sticking with that trend, Stone is the WHL’s version of Huberdeau or Strome. A late bloomer, he’s blossomed into a constant threat for the Brandon Wheat Kings, scoring almost at will this season. Stone has more size and sandpaper to his game than the previous two, so should be his rubber stamp.

Scheifele

7) Mark Scheifele — Another somewhat similar player to Stone, but with better speed and more playmaking ability. Scheifele’s NHL experience will serve him well and he should be a big-time player in this tournament.

Rattie

8 ) Ty Rattie — Teams can never have enough offence, especially when matching up against the Russians or Americans, and that’s Rattie brings to the table. He’s part playmaker, part finisher, but, most importantly, a proven producer. He’s another WHL player, one that has shone against Huska and Hay on several occasions.

Phillips

9) Zack Phillips — More offence? Why not. Phillips and Huberdeau have chemistry in St. John and will carry that over to Team Canada.

F. Hamilton

10) Freddie Hamilton — Chemistry you say? Hamilton and Strome are quite the tandem in Niagara as well, so keep them together and reap the benefits.

McNeill

11) Mark McNeill — These last three spots are the tough ones. McNeill is the total package with size, scoring and intangibles, plus a history with Hockey Canada at our tournaments where he has taken his game to another level. He’ll need to impress at the camp, but assuming he does, he’s a strong candidate to round out the depth chart.

Bulmer

12) Brett Bulmer — What Gallagher is to Hay, Bulmer is to Huska. He’s known more for offence in Kelowna, but it was his grit and checking ability that allowed him to stick with the NHL’s Minnesota Wild to start this season. Bulmer will fall back into that role with Canada and should be able to deliver the goods.

Pearson

13) Tanner Pearson — The extra forward spot is wide open, with 11 players still making a case for themselves. I’ll go out on a limb and pick Pearson for the sake of picking somebody, but I wouldn’t be surprised by anybody. It’s not like past years where there’s an “under-age” forward with a bird-cage knocking at the door that could ride the pine for experience and exposure. This year’s extra will be a contributor in some capacity, it just depends whether Hay wants a big-body presence that can be a power-play specialist like Pearson, or whether he’d rather an on-the-edge antagonist like Brad Ross, who could be this year’s Steve Downie or Jordin Tootoo. Ryan Spooner or Tyler Toffoli could add even more offence, and Michael Bournival is another name that slotted into several projected rosters, so maybe there’s more to him than I know. Time will tell . . .

Defence

D. Hamilton

1) Dougie Hamilton — Yes, he’s Freddie’s brother and another Niagara IceDog. In fact, he’s leading their team in scoring as a defenceman and is a towering presence that can play any role assigned to him.

Gormley

2) Brandon Gormley — He likely would have made the cut for last year’s team had it not been for a knee injury. Gormley’s healthy and contributing at both ends of the ice this season, so providing that holds up, he should have a spot to lose.

Morrow

3) Joe Morrow — Maybe it’s the WHL goggles again, but I think Morrow not only makes the team, but becomes an impact player. He might overshadow some of the bigger names by tournament’s end and could find himself manning the point on Canada’s top power-play unit.

Petrovic

4) Alex Petrovic — Morrow can be a bit of a riverboat gambler at times, though his speed helps him recover from those risks. Still, you need a steadying force on the back end and Petrovic has that presence. He’s not as flashy as the rest of this core, but he’s consistent and responsible. I like that potential pairing and hope it comes to fruition. Edmonton’s Mark Pysyk could also be a fit here, as another primarily stay-at-home, physical defender to offset Morrow’s skill-set and tendencies. I don’t think there’s room for both Pysyk and Petrovic as I see them competing for the same spot. I went with Petrovic because of a recent live viewing when covering a Red Deer game in Kelowna in which he stood out, more so than Rebels teammate Matt Dumba.

Murphy

5) Ryan Murphy — Injuries are again wreaking some havoc ahead of this year’s selection camp, with Murphy still recovering from a concussion. He has a special skill-set that can’t be duplicated by anyone else at camp, so if Murphy’s cleared by doctors I expect him to be on the team. And if he’s completely healthy and not hesitant when the tournament gets going, consider Canada that much more dangerous.

Murray

6) Ryan Murray — Like Murphy, Murray has been sidelined for much of this season with a high ankle sprain. His Everett team has struggled, stuck in the WHL’s basement, but Murray is a difference-maker when in the lineup — for Everett and, hopefully, for Canada.

Beaulieu

7) Nathan Beaulieu — Again, the seventh defence spot is a bit of a crapshoot. There’s a few strong candidates, but I like Beaulieu based on his offensive instincts and ability to fill in for either Murphy or Murray if need be.

Goal

Bunz

1) Tyler Bunz — He’ll enter camp as a favourite for one of the two positions, but emerge as the undisputed starter. He’s extremely athletic, quick and well-positioned, plus he plays the puck like an extra defenceman. That quality is becoming more and more important in today’s game and Bunz is as good as any goalie auditioning for this year’s team. Some might be worried about hitching the wagon to another Edmonton Oilers goaltending prospect after Olivier Roy’s struggles in Buffalo, but I have more confidence in Bunz to get the job done.

Wedgewood

2) Scott Wedgewood — Perhaps a surprise pick. Wedgewood also attended last year’s camp and had the chance to play for his junior coach, Dave Cameron, but ended up getting cut. Cameron probably wishes he had Wedgewood over Visentin in Buffalo, and I think Hay will avoid making the same mistake twice.

Depth Chart

Forwards

Schwartz-Howden-Gallagher

Huberdeau-Phillips-Rattie

F. Hamilton-Strome-Scheifele

Bulmer-McNeill-Stone

Pearson

Defence

D. Hamilton-Murphy

Gormley-Murray

Petrovic-Morrow

Beaulieu

Goal

Bunz

Wedgewood

Overview

Chances are this won’t be the final roster, but that’s my two cents on what the team could look like. My squad would be comprised of 10 WHL players, seven from the OHL and four from the QMJHL, plus Schwartz from the NCAA.

That’s obviously West-heavy, but as Prendergast indicated in my magazine feature for the December 2010 edition of Dubnation.ca, familiarity and chemistry are two key factors in putting the pieces together for a national team. And with two coaches from the WHL, plus two from the OHL in George Burnett (Belleville Bulls) and Scott Walker (Guelph Storm), my roster makes more and more sense.

In a few weeks time, all this speculation will be put to rest and we’ll know exactly who will be out to avenge last year’s gold-medal collapse against Russia with the goal of restoring Canada’s spot atop the podium on the evening of Thursday, January 5th.

Gold, Silver or Bronze?

Categories: Uncategorized